Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 639 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–12%.

Safest bet that day DL 639 LAX 06:40 → BOS 15:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest B6 2088 LAX 12:45 → BOS 21:15 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 639 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:40	BOS 15:15	7%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 2210 United Flight history →	LAX 21:18	BOS 05:46	10%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 507 Delta Flight history →	LAX 20:55	BOS 05:21	12%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 2453 American Flight history →	LAX 00:03	BOS 08:20	15%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 1783 United Flight history →	LAX 08:35	BOS 17:20	15%	5%	0.6%	83%
AA 12 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	BOS 16:38	15%	5%	0.6%	78%
B6 288 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 08:00	BOS 16:40	15%	6%	0.7%	70%
DL 437 Delta Flight history →	LAX 12:02	BOS 20:30	20%	7%	0.6%	71%
AA 382 American Flight history →	LAX 15:01	BOS 23:35	21%	7%	0.6%	79%
B6 988 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 09:59	BOS 18:42	23%	8%	0.7%	81%
B6 2088 JetBlue	LAX 12:45	BOS 21:15	25%	9%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:03 → MSP 05:39DL 430	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:47DL 2649	7h 44m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	LAX 00:15 → JFK 08:25DL 915	1h 25m New York	JFK 09:50 → BOS 11:18DL 5733 · flown by Republic	8h 03m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 13:27 → BOS 17:24DL 2558	8h 09m	98%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON