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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Buffalo on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 53m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → BUF 15:48DL 1749 6h 33m 91% 81%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802 2h 21m Detroit DTW 21:35 → BUF 22:45DL 978 7h 55m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:26 → ORD 11:26UA 580 2h 48m Chicago ORD 14:14 → BUF 16:47UA 580 8h 21m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 21:35 → BUF 23:42DL 2334 9h 42m 96% 73%
FrontierDetails → LAX 00:03 → ATL 07:45F9 3216 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 10:52 → BUF 13:09F9 1408 10h 06m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:30 → JFK 20:10DL 939 2h 30m New York JFK 22:40 → BUF 00:38 +1DL 5264 · flown by Endeavor 10h 08m 95% 71%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 2061 3h 08m Denver DEN 17:35 → BUF 22:47UA 731 8h 52m 99% 71%
JetBlueDetails → LAX 12:34 → JFK 20:51B6 324 1h 38m New York JFK 22:29 → BUF 00:13 +1B6 102 8h 39m 89% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → LAX 10:36 → FLL 19:04B6 1700 49m Fort Lauderdale FLL 19:53 → BUF 23:05B6 866 9h 29m 55% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON