Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 349 LAX 05:13 → BWI 13:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1093 LAX 09:33 → BWI 17:43 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 349 Southwest	LAX 05:13	BWI 13:10	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1246 Southwest	LAX 21:44	BWI 05:50	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1093 United Flight history →	LAX 09:33	BWI 17:43	14%	5%	0.6%	90%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 18:10 → BWI 21:06UA 1557	7h 21m	83%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON