tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 2212 at 12:50, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2212 United Flight history → LAX 12:50 BZN 16:24 13% 5% 0.6% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434 3h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 15:51 → BZN 17:14DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 6h 19m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BZN 12:05DL 1971 5h 30m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 1h 20m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → BZN 19:44DL 2954 7h 29m 93% 84%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668 1h 09m Portland PDX 10:30 → BZN 13:10AS 2022 · flown by Horizon 5h 10m 94% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360 3h 09m Denver DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347 7h 28m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:47 → DEN 12:14UA 1912 1h 16m Denver DEN 13:30 → BZN 15:18UA 513 5h 31m 93% 80%
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:15 → SEA 10:00DL 2980 1h 50m Seattle SEA 11:50 → BZN 14:45DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 6h 30m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → LAX 14:00 → SEA 16:40DL 2606 3h 19m Seattle SEA 19:59 → BZN 22:49DL 4039 · flown by SkyWest 7h 49m 98% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON