tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 13:10, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2315 United LAX 08:23 CLE 15:59 8% 4% 0.5% no record
UA 2641 United Flight history → LAX 22:50 CLE 06:28 10% 4% 0.6% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:39 → IAD 18:48UA 2667 3h 27m Dulles IAD 22:15 → CLE 23:44UA 2131 10h 05m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 3h 00m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → CLE 22:41DL 1392 8h 26m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 08m Houston IAH 07:20 → CLE 11:14UA 544 7h 23m 93% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654 3h 23m Houston IAH 14:35 → CLE 18:30UA 1934 9h 45m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:35 → SLC 14:27DL 1194 2h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → CLE 22:58DL 2855 8h 23m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:47 → DEN 12:14UA 1912 1h 41m Denver DEN 13:55 → CLE 18:53UA 2476 7h 06m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:26 → ORD 11:26UA 580 2h 54m Chicago ORD 14:20 → CLE 16:54UA 1502 8h 28m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:23 → LAS 09:44UA 1006 3h 18m Las Vegas LAS 13:02 → CLE 20:21UA 2235 8h 58m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 08:05 → PHL 16:28AA 1528 47m Philadelphia PHL 17:15 → CLE 19:06AA 5862 · flown by Piedmont 8h 01m 59% 44%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:20 → EWR 19:04UA 2127 51m Newark EWR 19:55 → CLE 21:45UA 2398 8h 25m 61% 43%
AmericanDetails → LAX 09:01 → DFW 14:14AA 1047 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:00 → CLE 18:50AA 1230 6h 49m 67% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON