Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1952 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1952 LAX 07:12 → CLT 15:05 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1596 LAX 12:55 → CLT 20:47 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1952 American Flight history →	LAX 07:12	CLT 15:05	15%	4%	0.7%	94%
AA 2115 American	LAX 23:16	CLT 07:06	20%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 3035 American Flight history →	LAX 22:35	CLT 06:19	22%	4%	0.9%	77%
AA 3175 American Flight history →	LAX 09:32	CLT 17:28	25%	8%	1.1%	76%
AA 2070 American	LAX 11:15	CLT 19:07	27%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 1596 American	LAX 12:55	CLT 20:47	28%	8%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	LAX 10:37 → IND 17:50AA 1899	1h 07m Indianapolis	IND 18:57 → CLT 20:35AA 586	6h 58m	81%	57%
American Details →	LAX 08:03 → DFW 13:13AA 2766	1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:25 → CLT 18:04AA 3227	7h 01m	86%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON