tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2251 United LAX 10:30 CMH 17:52 20% 7% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LAX 10:17 → PHL 18:47AA 738 3h 03m Philadelphia PHL 21:50 → CMH 23:41AA 4361 · flown by Republic 10h 24m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:03 → MSP 05:39DL 430 1h 31m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → CMH 10:02DL 2772 6h 59m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494 2h 46m Detroit DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic 8h 17m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:39 → IAD 18:48UA 2667 3h 33m Dulles IAD 22:21 → CMH 23:49UA 3646 · flown by Republic 10h 10m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → CMH 23:07DL 1356 8h 52m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:08 → PHL 08:32AA 2010 1h 59m Philadelphia PHL 10:31 → CMH 12:28AA 2253 9h 20m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → LAX 11:39 → ORD 17:56AA 2891 2h 58m Chicago ORD 20:54 → CMH 23:32AA 4445 · flown by Republic 8h 53m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654 1h 03m Houston IAH 12:15 → CMH 16:05UA 4072 · flown by Mesa 7h 20m 96% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAX 13:24 → IAD 21:32UA 1164 49m Dulles IAD 22:21 → CMH 23:49UA 3646 · flown by Republic 7h 25m 71% 64%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494 47m Detroit DTW 17:55 → CMH 19:05DL 5762 · flown by Republic 6h 20m 64% 58%
UnitedDetails → LAX 14:26 → ORD 20:40UA 2487 50m Chicago ORD 21:30 → CMH 23:59UA 1492 6h 33m 61% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON