Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Hebron on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 458 Delta Flight history →	LAX 00:27	CVG 07:46	11%	3%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 00:03 → MSP 05:39DL 430	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03DL 954	7h 00m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	3h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469	8h 56m	100%	90%
American Details →	LAX 00:03 → BOS 08:38AA 2453	3h 38m Boston	BOS 12:16 → CVG 14:52AA 4760 · flown by Republic	11h 49m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 17:34 → CVG 19:03DL 1858	10h 03m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	LAX 19:55 → LAS 21:04DL 2202	1h 51m Las Vegas	LAS 22:55 → CVG 05:42 +1DL 2794	6h 47m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273	6h 28m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:35 → SLC 14:27DL 1194	2h 58m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → CVG 22:46DL 2291	8h 11m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:40 → BOS 15:15DL 639	1h 45m Boston	BOS 17:00 → CVG 19:40DL 5620 · flown by Republic	10h 00m	98%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAX 10:17 → PHL 18:47AA 738	53m Philadelphia	PHL 19:40 → CVG 21:53AA 5583 · flown by PSA	8h 36m	65%	56%
American Details →	LAX 09:01 → DFW 14:14AA 1047	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:02 → CVG 18:29AA 2919	6h 28m	70%	47%
United Details →	LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113	55m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → CVG 20:21UA 1732	6h 36m	65%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON