Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2467 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 2467 LAX 06:52 → DEN 10:18 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2470 LAX 13:02 → DEN 16:28 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2467 Southwest	LAX 06:52	DEN 10:18	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 652 United	LAX 04:56	DEN 08:28	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 3156 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 06:30	DEN 10:03	10%	4%	0.7%	90%
UA 1912 United Flight history →	LAX 08:47	DEN 12:14	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 2610 United Flight history →	LAX 18:45	DEN 22:15	12%	5%	0.5%	91%
AA 6376 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:16	DEN 10:47	13%	5%	0.5%	95%
UA 2061 United Flight history →	LAX 10:55	DEN 14:27	13%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 2148 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:00	DEN 11:28	13%	3%	0.6%	83%
AA 6517 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:04	DEN 22:25	14%	5%	0.6%	82%
OO 4948 SkyWest	LAX 14:14	DEN 17:47	14%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 2146 United Flight history →	LAX 16:10	DEN 19:41	14%	6%	0.5%	79%
UA 360 United Flight history →	LAX 12:46	DEN 16:16	15%	6%	0.6%	90%
DL 1049 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:21	DEN 21:38	16%	4%	0.6%	88%
F9 2342 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 14:00	DEN 17:28	18%	7%	0.7%	70%
UA 2758 United Flight history →	LAX 14:30	DEN 18:00	19%	7%	0.6%	73%
WN 2469 Southwest	LAX 10:37	DEN 14:03	19%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 2176 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:57	DEN 18:22	20%	5%	0.6%	65%
WN 2470 Southwest	LAX 13:02	DEN 16:28	23%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON