Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2811 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2811 LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2024 LAX 17:36 → DFW 22:50 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2811 American Flight history →	LAX 06:00	DFW 11:15	11%	4%	1.0%	87%
AA 2746 American Flight history →	LAX 07:00	DFW 12:18	13%	5%	1.0%	87%
DL 521 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:40	DFW 14:53	16%	5%	0.7%	88%
AA 2490 American Flight history →	LAX 00:13	DFW 05:04	18%	6%	0.9%	92%
AA 971 American Flight history →	LAX 00:31	DFW 05:41	19%	7%	1.0%	85%
AA 2766 American Flight history →	LAX 08:03	DFW 13:13	20%	6%	1.0%	84%
AA 504 American	LAX 08:41	DFW 13:51	22%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 1047 American Flight history →	LAX 09:01	DFW 14:14	23%	8%	1.0%	65%
DL 420 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:00	DFW 22:12	24%	14%	3.2%	82%
F9 4964 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 01:45	DFW 07:05	25%	7%	1.1%	75%
F9 2564 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 16:14	DFW 21:38	26%	13%	4.2%	72%
AA 1154 American	LAX 10:43	DFW 15:56	28%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 1504 American Flight history →	LAX 18:31	DFW 23:43	30%	12%	2.6%	80%
AA 1760 American	LAX 11:53	DFW 17:04	30%	11%	1.2%	no record
AA 1657 American Flight history →	LAX 15:11	DFW 20:28	31%	12%	1.3%	57%
AA 500 American	LAX 13:55	DFW 19:14	31%	11%	1.3%	no record
AA 2024 American Flight history →	LAX 17:36	DFW 22:50	34%	13%	4.7%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON