tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 08:47, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Des Moines on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 4891 SkyWest LAX 12:58 DSM 18:37 19% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:03 → MSP 05:39DL 430 3h 22m Minneapolis MSP 09:01 → DSM 10:28DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 8h 25m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56DL 2399 3h 00m Detroit DTW 15:56 → DSM 17:00DL 5345 · flown by Endeavor 9h 30m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:08 → PHL 08:32AA 2010 2h 08m Philadelphia PHL 10:40 → DSM 12:44AA 5478 · flown by PSA 10h 36m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494 2h 44m Detroit DTW 19:52 → DSM 20:57DL 5087 · flown by Endeavor 9h 12m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 58m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → DSM 14:04DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor 5h 49m 93% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 19:54 → DSM 20:59DL 5253 · flown by Endeavor 7h 44m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAX 14:30 → DEN 18:00UA 2758 3h 00m Denver DEN 21:00 → DSM 23:47UA 1213 7h 17m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:47 → DEN 12:14UA 1912 1h 16m Denver DEN 13:30 → DSM 16:15UA 1311 5h 28m 93% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 09:32 → CLT 17:28AA 3175 1h 01m Charlotte CLT 18:29 → DSM 19:56AA 3020 8h 24m 74% 47%
UnitedDetails → LAX 14:26 → ORD 20:40UA 2487 49m Chicago ORD 21:29 → DSM 23:00UA 1839 6h 34m 54% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON