Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1160 at 08:07 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1160 LAX 08:07 → ELP 11:16 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2099 LAX 16:37 → ELP 19:46 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1160 Southwest	LAX 08:07	ELP 11:16	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 6190 SkyWest	LAX 07:34	ELP 10:43	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 4905 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:05	ELP 23:09	14%	6%	0.6%	78%
AA 6453 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:34	ELP 17:43	17%	6%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
WN 2099 Southwest	LAX 16:37	ELP 19:46	22%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON