Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1403 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1403 LAX 06:00 → EWR 14:37 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1981 LAX 11:15 → EWR 19:30 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1403 United Flight history →	LAX 06:00	EWR 14:37	7%	3%	0.9%	92%
UA 2743 United Flight history →	LAX 07:00	EWR 15:37	8%	4%	0.9%	94%
UA 2397 United Flight history →	LAX 21:00	EWR 05:18	14%	4%	0.8%	88%
UA 3900 United	LAX 00:28	EWR 08:34	16%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 576 United	LAX 21:50	EWR 05:46	17%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 286 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:03	EWR 15:02	17%	5%	1.3%	90%
UA 2096 United Flight history →	LAX 08:20	EWR 16:45	18%	7%	0.9%	83%
UA 2303 United Flight history →	LAX 23:15	EWR 07:30	18%	5%	0.8%	77%
B6 1574 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 20:33	EWR 05:00	19%	7%	1.0%	83%
UA 1950 United Flight history →	LAX 13:39	EWR 22:15	24%	10%	0.8%	61%
UA 1855 United Flight history →	LAX 13:25	EWR 21:43	28%	11%	0.8%	62%
UA 2127 United Flight history →	LAX 10:20	EWR 19:04	29%	14%	0.9%	72%
B6 1874 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 10:35	EWR 19:07	31%	12%	1.0%	67%
UA 1981 United Flight history →	LAX 11:15	EWR 19:30	33%	11%	0.8%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56DL 2399	1h 16m Detroit	DTW 14:12 → EWR 15:49DL 2573	7h 19m	97%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON