Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 443 at 18:37 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 17–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 443 LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AS 803 LAX 10:05 → HNL 12:58 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 443 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:37	HNL 21:22	14%	5%	0.4%	84%
UA 1170 United Flight history →	LAX 17:05	HNL 19:44	16%	6%	0.5%	82%
DL 465 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:55	HNL 16:43	17%	6%	0.4%	76%
DL 480 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:30	HNL 11:18	17%	4%	0.4%	84%
UA 1224 United Flight history →	LAX 13:15	HNL 16:17	18%	8%	0.5%	84%
UA 1158 United Flight history →	LAX 09:05	HNL 11:53	19%	6%	0.6%	89%
AS 801 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:00	HNL 09:54	19%	4%	1.0%	83%
AA 143 American Flight history →	LAX 14:55	HNL 17:51	20%	8%	0.6%	80%
AA 297 American Flight history →	LAX 17:54	HNL 20:41	21%	8%	0.6%	74%
AA 31 American Flight history →	LAX 09:16	HNL 12:15	21%	6%	0.6%	84%
WN 1056 Southwest	LAX 18:24	HNL 21:25	22%	7%	0.5%	no record
AS 809 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 18:00	HNL 20:53	23%	9%	0.9%	74%
AS 888 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 20:30	HNL 23:24	23%	9%	0.9%	68%
AS 556 Alaska	LAX 08:58	HNL 11:55	29%	5%	1.0%	no record
FI 1442 Icelandair	LAX 09:24	HNL 12:21	30%	6%	2.1%	no record
AS 803 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 10:05	HNL 12:58	38%	6%	1.0%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LAX 08:00 → KOA 10:39AS 560	1h 33m Kailua/Kona	KOA 12:12 → HNL 13:10AS 1087	8h 10m	97%	74%
Alaska Details →	LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:11AS 933	1h 50m Kahului	OGG 13:01 → HNL 13:51AS 1105	8h 21m	97%	71%
Alaska Details →	LAX 08:30 → LIH 11:39AS 963	1h 00m Lihue	LIH 12:39 → HNL 13:28AS 1084	7h 58m	77%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON