Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2282 LAX 20:57 → IAD 04:55 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 1164 LAX 13:24 → IAD 21:32 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2282 United Flight history →	LAX 20:57	IAD 04:55	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 2372 United Flight history →	LAX 22:20	IAD 06:16	10%	3%	0.6%	100%
UA 418 United Flight history →	LAX 23:23	IAD 07:17	10%	3%	0.6%	93%
UA 2268 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	IAD 16:26	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 2667 United Flight history →	LAX 10:39	IAD 18:48	13%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 444 United	LAX 15:00	IAD 22:52	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1164 United Flight history →	LAX 13:24	IAD 21:32	14%	5%	0.6%	94%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 2061	1h 13m Denver	DEN 15:40 → IAD 21:11UA 421	7h 16m	90%	74%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → IAD 19:44DL 847	6h 49m	85%	72%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:00 → ATL 14:35DL 515	51m Atlanta	ATL 15:26 → IAD 17:14DL 1695	7h 14m	78%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON