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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 13 nonstops are 5–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 654 LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1477 LAX 11:51 → IAH 17:21 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 654 United Flight history → LAX 05:45 IAH 11:12 5% 2% 0.7% 96%
UA 1416 United Flight history → LAX 08:00 IAH 13:30 10% 4% 0.7% 91%
UA 491 United Flight history → LAX 00:51 IAH 06:12 10% 3% 0.6% 92%
DL 1287 Delta Flight history → LAX 01:04 IAH 06:30 11% 4% 0.5% 85%
F9 1756 Frontier Flight history → LAX 06:07 IAH 11:28 11% 5% 0.9% 70%
UA 1680 United Flight history → LAX 19:22 IAH 00:51 11% 5% 0.7% 87%
UA 277 United Flight history → LAX 10:10 IAH 15:40 12% 5% 0.7% 88%
UA 1084 United LAX 13:07 IAH 18:36 13% 6% 0.7% no record
OO 4998 SkyWest LAX 14:27 IAH 19:56 13% 6% 0.6% no record
DL 1143 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:05 IAH 14:32 14% 4% 0.5% 86%
UA 2765 United LAX 15:17 IAH 20:46 14% 7% 0.7% no record
UA 2377 United Flight history → LAX 16:36 IAH 22:05 14% 6% 0.7% 87%
UA 1477 United LAX 11:51 IAH 17:21 15% 7% 0.7% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON