Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Indianapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1899 American Flight history →	LAX 10:37	IND 17:50	23%	7%	0.6%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 00:03 → MSP 05:39DL 430	3h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 08:57 → IND 11:38DL 2456	8h 35m	100%	92%
American Details →	LAX 00:08 → PHL 08:32AA 2010	2h 13m Philadelphia	PHL 10:45 → IND 13:08AA 5240 · flown by PSA	10h 00m	99%	89%
American Details →	LAX 06:05 → PHL 14:21AA 1451	3h 58m Philadelphia	PHL 18:19 → IND 20:45AA 4637 · flown by Republic	11h 40m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910	6h 18m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:40 → BOS 15:15DL 639	1h 40m Boston	BOS 16:55 → IND 19:42DL 5616 · flown by Republic	10h 02m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	3h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 20:00 → IND 22:37DL 674	8h 22m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 16:50 → IND 18:27DL 2979	9h 27m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318	3h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → IND 18:54DL 2228	8h 39m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAX 07:30 → SFO 09:06UA 1372	46m San Francisco	SFO 09:52 → IND 17:09UA 2274	6h 39m	66%	56%
United Details →	LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113	55m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → IND 20:16UA 3628 · flown by Republic	6h 31m	65%	53%
Delta Details →	LAX 14:15 → ATL 21:59DL 715	46m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → IND 00:20 +1DL 2657	7h 05m	65%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON