Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3670 at 05:37 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 3670 LAX 05:37 → LAS 06:59 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2785 LAX 20:15 → LAS 21:33 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3670 Southwest	LAX 05:37	LAS 06:59	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 233 Southwest	LAX 08:02	LAS 09:24	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2253 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:15	LAS 08:27	10%	3%	0.6%	95%
UA 1006 United Flight history →	LAX 08:23	LAS 09:44	10%	4%	0.6%	91%
AA 6425 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:10	LAS 09:33	13%	5%	0.8%	97%
F9 3292 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 12:07	LAS 13:29	18%	8%	1.0%	80%
F9 2264 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 21:17	LAS 22:41	19%	11%	1.2%	66%
UA 2741 United Flight history →	LAX 13:12	LAS 14:34	19%	8%	0.6%	83%
WN 3536 Southwest	LAX 11:02	LAS 12:24	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2202 Delta Flight history →	LAX 19:55	LAS 21:04	20%	9%	0.7%	74%
OO 6511 SkyWest	LAX 15:56	LAS 17:17	22%	12%	1.0%	no record
DL 1696 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:00	LAS 12:12	23%	5%	0.6%	77%
WN 2043 Southwest	LAX 12:37	LAS 13:59	23%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1073 Southwest	LAX 15:42	LAS 17:04	25%	11%	0.7%	no record
UA 2403 United	LAX 13:50	LAS 15:01	25%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 2529 American Flight history →	LAX 12:15	LAS 13:42	25%	9%	0.7%	57%
F9 2334 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 17:44	LAS 19:07	25%	19%	1.8%	43%
DL 2120 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:32	LAS 16:41	26%	11%	0.7%	69%
UA 1108 United	LAX 16:52	LAS 18:17	26%	16%	0.8%	no record
UA 371 United	LAX 18:59	LAS 20:09	27%	13%	0.8%	no record
AA 1522 American	LAX 20:53	LAS 22:13	29%	12%	1.0%	no record
WN 2485 Southwest	LAX 18:44	LAS 20:00	32%	14%	1.2%	no record
AA 2785 American Flight history →	LAX 20:15	LAS 21:33	32%	13%	1.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON