tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:03, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:03 → MSP 05:39DL 430 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 08:55 → LGA 12:36DL 2719 9h 33m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 3h 10m Minneapolis MSP 20:00 → LGA 23:44DL 2733 9h 29m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802 2h 36m Detroit DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603 8h 50m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 51m Houston IAH 08:03 → LGA 12:45UA 1143 8h 54m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 3h 23m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → LGA 19:00DL 2732 9h 45m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:13 → DFW 05:22AA 2490 2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:27 → LGA 11:58AA 1609 8h 45m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971 2h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:27 → LGA 13:10AA 1056 9h 39m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 2061 2h 53m Denver DEN 17:20 → LGA 23:13UA 2033 9h 18m 99% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 08:00 → ORD 14:27AA 1598 46m Chicago ORD 15:13 → LGA 18:38AA 866 7h 38m 62% 39%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → ORD 13:14UA 1941 46m Chicago ORD 14:00 → LGA 17:22UA 1821 7h 22m 55% 37%
JetBlueDetails → LAX 10:36 → FLL 19:04B6 1700 56m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:00 → LGA 22:59B6 572 9h 23m 59% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON