Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1295 at 08:49 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 1295 LAX 08:49 → LIH 11:46 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 119 LAX 08:48 → LIH 11:47 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1295 United Flight history →	LAX 08:49	LIH 11:46	13%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 428 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:45	LIH 17:41	18%	5%	0.6%	83%
AS 963 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 08:30	LIH 11:39	23%	4%	0.9%	75%
AA 119 American Flight history →	LAX 08:48	LIH 11:47	23%	5%	0.6%	80%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → HNL 09:54AS 801	1h 26m Honolulu	HNL 11:20 → LIH 12:10AS 1073	8h 10m	94%	67%
Alaska Details →	LAX 10:05 → HNL 12:58AS 803	1h 40m Honolulu	HNL 14:38 → LIH 15:28AS 1103	8h 23m	88%	63%
Alaska Details →	LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:11AS 933	1h 05m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	7h 36m	82%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON