tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 482 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 482 LAX 07:35 → MCO 15:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1024 LAX 10:51 → MCO 18:56 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 482 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:35 MCO 15:35 14% 4% 1.6% 84%
UA 1730 United Flight history → LAX 00:03 MCO 07:41 15% 3% 4.2% 90%
DL 718 Delta Flight history → LAX 16:05 MCO 00:07 16% 5% 1.1% 77%
WN 2487 Southwest LAX 22:14 MCO 05:59 17% 4% 1.0% no record
UA 1621 United Flight history → LAX 10:28 MCO 18:28 18% 5% 1.3% 89%
DL 867 Delta Flight history → LAX 10:28 MCO 18:42 25% 6% 1.4% 69%
F9 4146 Frontier Flight history → LAX 23:00 MCO 07:13 27% 9% 2.7% 52%
AA 1024 American Flight history → LAX 10:51 MCO 18:56 28% 9% 1.5% 69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 08m Houston IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51UA 2245 7h 00m 93% 79%
AmericanDetails → LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15AA 2811 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:17 → MCO 16:04AA 1615 7h 04m 90% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON