tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:15, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Memphis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 3h 15m Minneapolis MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest 9h 00m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:08 → PHL 08:32AA 2010 2h 11m Philadelphia PHL 10:43 → MEM 12:11AA 5040 · flown by PSA 10h 03m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 13:40 → MEM 17:40DL 2515 8h 25m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:00 → IAH 13:30UA 1416 3h 03m Houston IAH 16:33 → MEM 18:26UA 4054 · flown by Mesa 8h 26m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → LAX 08:23 → DCA 16:29AA 3283 1h 35m Washington DCA 18:04 → MEM 19:28AA 4681 · flown by Republic 9h 05m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → MEM 16:56DL 1681 8h 56m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → LAX 10:17 → PHL 18:47AA 738 1h 23m Philadelphia PHL 20:10 → MEM 22:06AA 5387 · flown by PSA 9h 49m 92% 78%
AmericanDetails → LAX 06:00 → ORD 12:27AA 383 2h 46m Chicago ORD 15:13 → MEM 17:11AA 4651 · flown by Republic 9h 11m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAX 14:15 → ATL 21:59DL 715 51m Atlanta ATL 22:50 → MEM 23:12DL 2501 6h 57m 70% 52%
AmericanDetails → LAX 08:00 → ORD 14:27AA 1598 46m Chicago ORD 15:13 → MEM 17:11AA 4651 · flown by Republic 7h 11m 62% 49%
AmericanDetails → LAX 15:11 → DFW 20:28AA 1657 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:25 → MEM 23:07AA 1758 5h 56m 66% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON