Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3403 at 12:18, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 3403 SkyWest	LAX 12:18	MFR 14:24	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 2328 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAX 13:15	MFR 15:14	6%	2%	0.0%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest	6h 05m	98%	87%
Alaska Details →	LAX 18:00 → SEA 20:35AS 698	2h 05m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon	6h 04m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311	1h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:40 → MFR 22:32DL 3722 · flown by SkyWest	5h 27m	94%	84%
Alaska Details →	LAX 11:49 → SEA 14:20AS 798	3h 27m Seattle	SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon	7h 24m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	LAX 11:22 → PDX 13:43AS 1355	1h 16m Portland	PDX 14:59 → MFR 16:15AS 3337 · flown by SkyWest	4h 53m	93%	81%
United Details →	LAX 11:46 → SFO 13:17UA 1245	3h 30m San Francisco	SFO 16:47 → MFR 18:13UA 1001	6h 27m	98%	73%
Alaska Details →	LAX 18:27 → PDX 20:48AS 1397	1h 16m Portland	PDX 22:04 → MFR 23:06AS 2266 · flown by Horizon	4h 39m	91%	71%
Delta Details →	LAX 17:45 → SEA 20:27DL 2640	1h 08m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest	5h 26m	86%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON