Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2777 at 22:54 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 2777 LAX 22:54 → MIA 07:04 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 858 LAX 10:41 → MIA 19:00 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2777 American Flight history →	LAX 22:54	MIA 07:04	16%	5%	0.7%	91%
AA 637 American	LAX 06:31	MIA 14:49	18%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 778 American	LAX 20:49	MIA 05:14	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 345 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	MIA 16:19	22%	5%	0.8%	87%
DL 811 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:40	MIA 18:07	28%	7%	0.8%	77%
AA 467 American	LAX 13:46	MIA 21:58	31%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 858 American	LAX 10:41	MIA 19:00	36%	9%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654	48m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	7h 02m	90%	69%
American Details →	LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971	1h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → MIA 11:11AA 3290	7h 40m	93%	66%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	55m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → MIA 16:35DL 1386	7h 35m	87%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON