Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Missoula on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	2h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	6h 00m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311	1h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:36 → MSO 23:11DL 1824	5h 06m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	53m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSO 14:38DL 362	7h 23m	91%	79%
United Details →	LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360	3h 15m Denver	DEN 19:31 → MSO 21:40UA 1092	7h 54m	98%	71%
Alaska Details →	LAX 08:19 → SEA 10:56AS 495	1h 27m Seattle	SEA 12:23 → MSO 14:49AS 1451	5h 30m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	LAX 15:22 → MSP 20:59DL 2198	53m Minneapolis	MSP 21:52 → MSO 23:44DL 2610	7h 22m	84%	67%
United Details →	LAX 07:30 → SFO 09:06UA 1372	3h 09m San Francisco	SFO 12:15 → MSO 15:38UA 5422 · flown by SkyWest	7h 08m	99%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAX 15:57 → SEA 18:31AS 585	1h 03m Seattle	SEA 19:34 → MSO 21:56AS 604	4h 59m	71%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON