Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 417 at 09:08 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 417 LAX 09:08 → OGG 11:54 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 962 LAX 10:00 → OGG 12:45 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 417 United Flight history →	LAX 09:08	OGG 11:54	16%	6%	0.7%	93%
DL 425 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:30	OGG 11:07	16%	5%	0.6%	86%
AA 271 American Flight history →	LAX 09:04	OGG 11:44	19%	8%	0.7%	83%
AS 933 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 08:30	OGG 11:11	23%	5%	1.0%	73%
AS 962 Alaska	LAX 10:00	OGG 12:45	31%	6%	1.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → HNL 09:54AS 801	1h 30m Honolulu	HNL 11:24 → OGG 12:07AS 1086	8h 07m	94%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON