Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Phoenix, leaving 16:39, is the safest bet: 48% chance of reaching Oklahoma City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 6378 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:15	OKC 13:23	14%	5%	0.6%	97%worse than usual
AA 6385 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 17:24	OKC 22:30	16%	8%	1.1%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 11:35 → SLC 14:27DL 1194	3h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → OKC 21:07DL 3703 · flown by SkyWest	7h 32m	99%	86%
United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 13m Houston	IAH 07:25 → OKC 08:57UA 6178 · flown by Mesa	6h 06m	95%	85%
American Details →	LAX 00:13 → DFW 05:22AA 2490	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:22 → OKC 08:40AA 4946 · flown by SkyWest	6h 27m	100%	85%
American Details →	LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971	3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:16 → OKC 10:29AA 1902	7h 58m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → OKC 20:15DL 3791 · flown by SkyWest	7h 00m	93%	75%
United Details →	LAX 08:47 → DEN 12:14UA 1912	1h 11m Denver	DEN 13:25 → OKC 16:10UA 1656	5h 23m	92%	74%
Delta Details →	LAX 08:05 → ATL 15:41DL 782	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 18:05 → OKC 19:16DL 2784	9h 11m	98%	72%
United Details →	LAX 10:10 → IAH 15:40UA 277	2h 32m Houston	IAH 18:12 → OKC 19:53UA 5278 · flown by SkyWest	7h 43m	96%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAX 16:39 → PHX 18:10AA 2032	46m Phoenix	PHX 18:56 → OKC 23:15AA 6320 · flown by SkyWest	4h 36m	63%	48%
American Details →	LAX 09:01 → DFW 14:14AA 1047	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:02 → OKC 16:15AA 2832	5h 14m	70%	47%
American Details →	LAX 09:30 → ORD 15:44AA 2998	51m Chicago	ORD 16:35 → OKC 18:51AA 6481 · flown by SkyWest	7h 21m	70%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON