Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 24 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 580 at 05:26 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 580 LAX 05:26 → ORD 11:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 3192 LAX 13:22 → ORD 19:51 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 580 United Flight history →	LAX 05:26	ORD 11:26	8%	3%	0.6%	98%
AA 383 American Flight history →	LAX 06:00	ORD 12:27	9%	5%	0.8%	91%
UA 1941 United Flight history →	LAX 07:00	ORD 13:14	12%	5%	0.6%	91%
UA 1962 United Flight history →	LAX 23:30	ORD 05:46	14%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 1946 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	ORD 14:35	15%	6%	0.6%	85%
UA 353 United Flight history →	LAX 22:35	ORD 04:51	15%	5%	0.6%	90%
AA 3161 American	LAX 00:00	ORD 05:58	16%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1598 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	ORD 14:27	18%	6%	0.8%	90%
AA 991 American	LAX 23:33	ORD 05:39	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 1328 United	LAX 22:54	ORD 04:52	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1433 American Flight history →	LAX 17:55	ORD 00:12	20%	8%	0.8%	62%
UA 2780 United	LAX 16:42	ORD 22:48	21%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 1998 American Flight history →	LAX 17:13	ORD 23:24	21%	9%	0.8%	42%
UA 2113 United Flight history →	LAX 10:45	ORD 17:04	25%	9%	0.6%	78%
AA 2998 American Flight history →	LAX 09:30	ORD 15:44	25%	11%	0.8%	71%
UA 457 United Flight history →	LAX 12:50	ORD 19:05	25%	10%	0.6%	69%
DL 2368 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:32	ORD 15:27	26%	8%	0.5%	66%
UA 2487 United Flight history →	LAX 14:26	ORD 20:40	26%	9%	0.6%	69%
AA 3075 American	LAX 10:26	ORD 16:45	28%	11%	0.8%	no record
UA 2794 United Flight history →	LAX 15:17	ORD 21:17	29%	9%	0.6%	91%worse than usual
AA 2891 American Flight history →	LAX 11:39	ORD 17:56	29%	10%	0.8%	74%
DL 1634 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:17	ORD 21:13	29%	8%	0.5%	67%
AA 2131 American	LAX 15:30	ORD 21:36	29%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 3192 American	LAX 13:22	ORD 19:51	30%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON