Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2975 LAX 07:05 → PDX 09:23 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2457 LAX 18:51 → PDX 21:04 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2975 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:05	PDX 09:23	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
AS 668 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:00	PDX 09:21	9%	3%	0.8%	95%
DL 2766 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:00	PDX 12:20	13%	4%	0.5%	89%
DL 2551 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:19	PDX 16:34	14%	4%	0.6%	86%
AS 1315 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 14:27	PDX 16:47	14%	4%	0.7%	92%
AS 207 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 21:35	PDX 23:56	15%	4%	0.7%	88%
AS 1397 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 18:27	PDX 20:48	16%	4%	0.7%	89%
AS 1355 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:22	PDX 13:43	17%	4%	0.7%	84%
AA 6424 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:10	PDX 22:39	17%	8%	0.6%	69%
DL 2457 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:51	PDX 21:04	17%	5%	0.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON