Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1451 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 1451 LAX 06:05 → PHL 14:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 738 LAX 10:17 → PHL 18:47 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1451 American Flight history →	LAX 06:05	PHL 14:21	8%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 2222 American	LAX 07:13	PHL 15:41	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2010 American Flight history →	LAX 00:08	PHL 08:14	14%	4%	0.7%	72%
AA 3276 American Flight history →	LAX 22:46	PHL 07:00	18%	4%	0.7%	63%
AA 1528 American Flight history →	LAX 08:05	PHL 16:28	19%	5%	0.7%	88%
AA 513 American Flight history →	LAX 15:20	PHL 23:39	20%	7%	0.7%	67%
DL 8865 Delta	LAX 09:54	PHL 17:48	21%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 738 American Flight history →	LAX 10:17	PHL 18:47	23%	7%	0.7%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON