Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1315 at 05:28 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 1315 LAX 05:28 → PHX 06:54 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2032 LAX 16:39 → PHX 18:10 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1315 Southwest	LAX 05:28	PHX 06:54	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 200 Southwest	LAX 08:27	PHX 10:03	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2712 American	LAX 06:31	PHX 08:07	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 3951 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:50	PHX 11:25	12%	6%	0.6%	86%
DL 4119 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:30	PHX 09:00	12%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 4077 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 17:41	PHX 19:14	12%	6%	0.6%	88%
OO 5662 SkyWest	LAX 16:25	PHX 18:14	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 3894 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 13:59	PHX 15:34	13%	7%	0.6%	88%
OO 5425 SkyWest	LAX 13:26	PHX 15:11	13%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 5419 SkyWest	LAX 08:20	PHX 09:58	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4796 Southwest	LAX 12:12	PHX 13:48	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 374 United	LAX 19:20	PHX 20:54	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2388 American	LAX 09:51	PHX 11:21	20%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2056 Southwest	LAX 16:27	PHX 18:03	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 3606 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 20:35	PHX 22:17	21%	11%	1.2%	76%
WN 2057 Southwest	LAX 19:29	PHX 20:58	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2211 American	LAX 18:49	PHX 20:21	24%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 1994 American Flight history →	LAX 13:10	PHX 14:40	28%	8%	0.7%	65%
AA 2032 American Flight history →	LAX 16:39	PHX 18:10	29%	9%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON