Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2039 United Flight history →	LAX 09:00	PIT 16:51	11%	6%	0.5%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 00:03 → MSP 05:39DL 430	2h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 07:45 → PIT 10:48DL 845	7h 45m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → PIT 22:55DL 1134	8h 40m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	2h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → PIT 16:38DL 1188	8h 03m	98%	87%
American Details →	LAX 11:39 → ORD 17:56AA 2891	2h 36m Chicago	ORD 20:32 → PIT 23:10AA 4527 · flown by Republic	8h 31m	100%	86%
American Details →	LAX 06:00 → JFK 14:37AA 118	2h 04m New York	JFK 16:41 → PIT 18:26AA 4734 · flown by Republic	9h 26m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → PIT 18:45DL 3122	9h 45m	99%	84%
American Details →	LAX 10:17 → PHL 18:47AA 738	2h 27m Philadelphia	PHL 21:14 → PIT 22:36AA 9787	9h 19m	100%	84%
American Details →	LAX 00:13 → DFW 05:22AA 2490	1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:01 → PIT 10:57AA 1583	7h 44m	98%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAX 09:00 → SEA 11:52AS 482	58m Seattle	SEA 12:50 → PIT 20:01AS 412	8h 01m	68%	54%
American Details →	LAX 10:17 → PHL 18:47AA 738	55m Philadelphia	PHL 19:42 → PIT 21:10AA 2901	7h 53m	65%	53%
American Details →	LAX 11:39 → ORD 17:56AA 2891	56m Chicago	ORD 18:52 → PIT 21:39AA 1051	7h 00m	68%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON