Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 3303 at 19:45, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 3303 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:45	PSC 22:17	15%	6%	0.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pasco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	2h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → PSC 11:44DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest	6h 09m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434	3h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:52 → PSC 16:38DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	6h 43m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311	1h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → PSC 22:10DL 1712	5h 05m	93%	80%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 18:25 → PSC 19:45DL 762	8h 30m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SEA 10:00DL 2980	3h 40m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → PSC 14:54DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest	7h 39m	97%	72%
American Details →	LAX 13:10 → PHX 14:40AA 1994	2h 33m Phoenix	PHX 17:13 → PSC 19:59AA 5006 · flown by SkyWest	6h 49m	87%	71%
Delta Details →	LAX 17:45 → SEA 20:27DL 2640	2h 18m Seattle	SEA 22:45 → PSC 23:53DL 4017 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	96%	70%
United Details →	LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360	2h 48m Denver	DEN 19:04 → PSC 20:30UA 1737	7h 44m	97%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAX 19:08 → SEA 21:47DL 1551	58m Seattle	SEA 22:45 → PSC 23:53DL 4017 · flown by SkyWest	4h 45m	74%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON