tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 504 at 16:07, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 504 United LAX 16:07 RDM 18:16 18% 6% 1.0% no record
AS 2162 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record LAX 20:52 RDM 22:59 19% 6% 1.7% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Redmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → RDM 11:35DL 3727 · flown by SkyWest 6h 00m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311 1h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 21:45 → RDM 22:32DL 3756 · flown by SkyWest 5h 27m 94% 88%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 18:00 → SEA 20:35AS 698 2h 18m Seattle SEA 22:53 → RDM 23:59AS 2094 · flown by Horizon 5h 59m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAX 11:46 → SFO 13:17UA 1245 3h 30m San Francisco SFO 16:47 → RDM 18:27UA 2418 6h 41m 98% 78%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 18:27 → PDX 20:48AS 1397 1h 07m Portland PDX 21:55 → RDM 22:45AS 2057 · flown by Horizon 4h 18m 87% 77%
UnitedDetails → LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360 3h 13m Denver DEN 19:29 → RDM 21:05UA 1588 8h 19m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → LAX 12:09 → SEA 14:55DL 1045 2h 30m Seattle SEA 17:25 → RDM 18:43DL 4141 · flown by SkyWest 6h 34m 96% 77%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 14:27 → PDX 16:47AS 1315 1h 33m Portland PDX 18:20 → RDM 19:09AS 2172 · flown by Horizon 4h 42m 94% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAX 08:19 → SEA 10:56AS 495 1h 00m Seattle SEA 11:56 → RDM 13:08AS 2400 · flown by Horizon 4h 49m 67% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON