Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 462 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:46	RDU 17:30	21%	4%	0.5%	79%
AA 1754 American	LAX 09:06	RDU 17:13	22%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	2h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 14:36 → RDU 18:12DL 2699	8h 57m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	3h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → RDU 23:59DL 2932	9h 44m	100%	86%
United Details →	LAX 08:15 → IAD 16:26UA 2268	2h 34m Dulles	IAD 19:00 → RDU 20:13UA 1322	8h 58m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:35 → SLC 14:27DL 1194	3h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:51 → RDU 00:00 +1DL 402	9h 25m	99%	85%
American Details →	LAX 00:08 → PHL 08:32AA 2010	2h 07m Philadelphia	PHL 10:39 → RDU 12:19AA 3152	9h 11m	99%	85%
United Details →	LAX 10:39 → IAD 18:48UA 2667	3h 22m Dulles	IAD 22:10 → RDU 23:29UA 2382	9h 50m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56DL 2399	1h 29m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → RDU 16:08DL 1407	7h 38m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 15:52 → RDU 17:25DL 2600	8h 25m	98%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528	48m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → RDU 20:57DL 1518	6h 57m	58%	46%
American Details →	LAX 11:39 → ORD 17:56AA 2891	46m Chicago	ORD 18:42 → RDU 21:59AA 2167	7h 20m	63%	40%
United Details →	LAX 11:15 → EWR 19:30UA 1981	49m Newark	EWR 20:19 → RDU 22:05UA 2359	7h 50m	53%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON