Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3929 LAX 21:59 → RNO 23:28 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 1161 LAX 13:12 → RNO 14:50 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3929 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:59	RNO 23:28	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 4126 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:50	RNO 18:21	12%	5%	0.6%	90%
DL 4099 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:20	RNO 09:53	13%	5%	0.6%	96%
DL 3902 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:58	RNO 14:25	14%	6%	0.6%	91%
UA 401 United	LAX 16:35	RNO 18:11	15%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 482 United	LAX 10:31	RNO 12:07	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1161 Southwest	LAX 13:12	RNO 14:50	18%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON