Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3746 at 22:45 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 3746 LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 1068 LAX 11:25 → SAN 12:16 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3746 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 22:45	SAN 23:42	15%	5%	0.8%	87%
DL 4087 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:20	SAN 19:17	17%	7%	0.8%	84%
DL 4001 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:11	SAN 15:08	17%	7%	0.7%	82%
DL 3716 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:20	SAN 09:22	22%	8%	0.7%	79%
UA 1100 United	LAX 19:01	SAN 19:53	24%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 1068 United	LAX 11:25	SAN 12:16	27%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON