Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4695 LAX 07:05 → SAT 12:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6497 LAX 09:39 → SAT 14:40 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4695 Southwest	LAX 07:05	SAT 12:00	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 4962 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:22	SAT 23:29	14%	6%	0.6%	84%
DL 2568 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:55	SAT 14:53	16%	4%	0.4%	89%
AA 6497 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:39	SAT 14:40	17%	6%	0.5%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON