tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 545 at 20:57, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 545 SkyWest LAX 20:57 SBA 21:51 15% 6% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 2h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 6h 24m 98% 90%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668 1h 26m Portland PDX 10:47 → SBA 13:05AS 2317 · flown by Horizon 6h 05m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 6h 08m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311 1h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest 5h 00m 89% 83%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 14:27 → PDX 16:47AS 1315 1h 01m Portland PDX 17:48 → SBA 20:04AS 2029 · flown by Horizon 5h 37m 86% 77%
UnitedDetails → LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360 3h 07m Denver DEN 19:23 → SBA 20:59UA 2479 8h 13m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → LAX 11:46 → SFO 13:17UA 1245 3h 00m San Francisco SFO 16:17 → SBA 17:37UA 639 5h 51m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → LAX 13:10 → PHX 14:40AA 1994 2h 37m Phoenix PHX 17:17 → SBA 19:08AA 1855 5h 58m 89% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON