Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 22 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2980 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 2980 LAX 07:15 → SEA 10:00 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 698 LAX 18:00 → SEA 20:35 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2980 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:15	SEA 10:00	14%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 2606 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:00	SEA 16:40	16%	5%	0.6%	84%
DL 1045 Delta Flight history →	LAX 12:09	SEA 14:55	17%	5%	0.5%	89%
DL 304 Delta	LAX 09:26	SEA 12:00	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 1177 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 15:04	SEA 17:51	20%	7%	1.6%	82%
DL 2640 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:45	SEA 20:27	20%	5%	0.6%	83%
AS 748 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:00	SEA 09:49	20%	4%	0.8%	88%
AA 9732 American	LAX 14:05	SEA 16:57	20%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 6438 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 13:09	SEA 16:04	21%	7%	0.6%	91%worse than usual
AA 6371 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:36	SEA 22:19	21%	7%	0.7%	74%
DL 1551 Delta Flight history →	LAX 19:08	SEA 21:47	22%	6%	0.5%	81%
OO 6047 SkyWest	LAX 16:34	SEA 19:13	25%	8%	0.7%	no record
OO 5736 SkyWest	LAX 08:43	SEA 11:46	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 585 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 15:57	SEA 18:31	27%	6%	0.7%	87%worse than usual
OO 6476 SkyWest	LAX 09:35	SEA 12:32	27%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 5271 SkyWest	LAX 10:56	SEA 13:54	27%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 482 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 09:00	SEA 11:52	29%	4%	0.8%	85%worse than usual
AS 798 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:49	SEA 14:20	29%	4%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
AS 1301 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 20:04	SEA 22:38	30%	7%	0.7%	87%worse than usual
AS 1305 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 16:57	SEA 19:37	31%	7%	0.7%	76%
AS 495 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 08:19	SEA 10:56	33%	5%	0.8%	92%worse than usual
AS 698 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 18:00	SEA 20:35	33%	7%	0.8%	91%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON