Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 30 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2503 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2503 LAX 07:02 → SFO 08:35 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1715 LAX 09:20 → SFO 10:42 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2503 Southwest	LAX 07:02	SFO 08:35	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1421 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:00	SFO 08:21	15%	3%	0.8%	94%
UA 1047 United	LAX 22:34	SFO 00:04	21%	9%	0.5%	no record
OO 6274 SkyWest	LAX 07:29	SFO 09:13	22%	8%	0.8%	no record
DL 689 Delta	LAX 12:02	SFO 13:32	22%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 6260 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:38	SFO 22:14	22%	9%	0.8%	63%
AA 6277 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:52	SFO 11:36	23%	9%	0.8%	63%
AA 3138 American Flight history →	LAX 17:31	SFO 19:08	23%	12%	0.6%	69%
UA 469 United Flight history →	LAX 13:24	SFO 14:58	23%	9%	0.6%	77%
WN 2505 Southwest	LAX 12:57	SFO 14:30	24%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 1110 American	LAX 11:02	SFO 12:42	25%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 2199 United	LAX 10:57	SFO 12:35	25%	10%	0.6%	no record
OO 6276 SkyWest	LAX 14:10	SFO 15:45	25%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 1245 United Flight history →	LAX 11:46	SFO 13:17	25%	9%	0.6%	79%
AS 361 Alaska	LAX 17:23	SFO 18:44	26%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 197 Southwest	LAX 16:22	SFO 17:55	26%	14%	0.5%	no record
UA 1372 United Flight history →	LAX 07:30	SFO 09:06	27%	7%	0.6%	49%
UA 2019 United Flight history →	LAX 16:14	SFO 17:42	27%	13%	0.6%	68%
AS 91 Alaska	LAX 15:33	SFO 16:54	28%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 2056 United Flight history →	LAX 21:11	SFO 22:33	29%	10%	0.5%	61%
UA 2837 United	LAX 18:55	SFO 20:17	29%	13%	0.5%	no record
DL 2197 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:08	SFO 19:32	30%	10%	0.8%	45%
AS 309 Alaska	LAX 12:55	SFO 14:16	30%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1905 United	LAX 09:43	SFO 11:20	31%	11%	0.6%	no record
DL 1693 Delta	LAX 20:50	SFO 22:14	31%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 1195 United Flight history →	LAX 20:05	SFO 21:33	33%	13%	0.5%	28%
F9 2857 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 09:00	SFO 10:39	34%	11%	2.4%	50%
DL 2267 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:25	SFO 15:44	37%	10%	0.8%	50%
AS 1411 Alaska	LAX 14:42	SFO 15:56	38%	11%	0.7%	no record
DL 1715 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:20	SFO 10:42	41%	9%	0.8%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON