Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4785 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 4785 LAX 07:12 → SJC 08:36 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1359 LAX 16:09 → SJC 17:27 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4785 Southwest	LAX 07:12	SJC 08:36	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 882 Southwest	LAX 09:52	SJC 11:16	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 3849 SkyWest	LAX 14:18	SJC 15:44	10%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:00	SJC 19:15	10%	4%	0.5%	88%
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:57	SJC 14:12	10%	4%	0.5%	90%
DL 1380 Delta	LAX 09:18	SJC 10:38	11%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 4458 Southwest	LAX 14:02	SJC 15:26	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2511 Southwest	LAX 16:45	SJC 18:03	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 1420 Delta	LAX 20:44	SJC 22:05	15%	6%	1.0%	no record
DL 1359 Delta	LAX 16:09	SJC 17:27	15%	6%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON