Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2906 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2906 LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 1268 LAX 10:10 → SLC 13:02 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2906 Delta Flight history →	LAX 05:35	SLC 08:30	5%	2%	0.4%	96%
DL 1318 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:15	SLC 10:10	8%	3%	0.4%	92%
OO 555 SkyWest	LAX 16:48	SLC 19:51	14%	6%	0.5%	no record
DL 2311 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:05	SLC 19:58	14%	4%	0.4%	78%
DL 1434 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:55	SLC 12:45	15%	3%	0.4%	92%
DL 1647 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:10	SLC 16:03	16%	4%	0.4%	87%
DL 1194 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:35	SLC 14:27	16%	4%	0.4%	90%
WN 1467 Southwest	LAX 16:52	SLC 19:49	20%	7%	0.5%	no record
F9 1268 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 10:10	SLC 13:02	23%	6%	0.9%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON