Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2514 at 08:22 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 2514 LAX 08:22 → SMF 10:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 685 LAX 16:17 → SMF 17:55 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2514 Southwest	LAX 08:22	SMF 10:00	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 5537 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:23	SMF 11:08	11%	5%	0.5%	92%
AA 4908 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 22:19	SMF 23:55	11%	3%	0.5%	79%
UA 5430 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:14	SMF 22:48	12%	4%	0.5%	87%
DL 3755 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:15	SMF 10:47	13%	5%	0.5%	95%
DL 3700 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:11	SMF 08:51	13%	4%	0.5%	74%
OO 6278 SkyWest	LAX 16:50	SMF 18:25	13%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 5858 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:30	SMF 18:06	13%	5%	0.5%	92%
DL 3712 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:38	SMF 18:11	13%	5%	0.5%	88%
OO 6279 SkyWest	LAX 09:41	SMF 11:24	14%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 4083 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:49	SMF 20:23	15%	5%	0.5%	76%
OO 313 SkyWest	LAX 13:42	SMF 15:16	15%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2516 Southwest	LAX 11:47	SMF 13:35	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 134 SkyWest	LAX 12:06	SMF 13:35	16%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 685 Southwest	LAX 16:17	SMF 17:55	17%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON