Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3325 at 18:01, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3325 SkyWest	LAX 18:01	STS 19:38	26%	9%	1.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668	1h 24m Portland	PDX 10:45 → STS 12:26AS 2330 · flown by Horizon	5h 26m	96%	88%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → SEA 09:49AS 748	1h 08m Seattle	SEA 10:57 → STS 12:53AS 1347	5h 53m	89%	63%
Alaska Details →	LAX 15:57 → SEA 18:31AS 585	1h 25m Seattle	SEA 19:56 → STS 21:51AS 504	5h 54m	86%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAX 11:22 → PDX 13:43AS 1355	47m Portland	PDX 14:30 → STS 16:15AS 3483 · flown by SkyWest	4h 53m	68%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON