Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 00:51, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 392 United	LAX 09:34	TPA 17:31	19%	6%	1.0%	no record
DL 749 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:25	TPA 18:19	22%	4%	1.1%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	3h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 15:35 → TPA 19:46DL 2385	10h 31m	100%	83%
United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 13m Houston	IAH 07:25 → TPA 10:45UA 1353	6h 54m	94%	83%
American Details →	LAX 00:08 → PHL 08:33AA 2010	2h 06m Philadelphia	PHL 10:39 → TPA 13:41AA 2015	10h 33m	98%	79%
United Details →	LAX 08:47 → DEN 12:14UA 1912	1h 46m Denver	DEN 14:00 → TPA 19:42UA 2375	7h 55m	95%	79%
United Details →	LAX 16:14 → SFO 17:42UA 2019	3h 18m San Francisco	SFO 21:00 → TPA 05:05 +1UA 1702	9h 51m	97%	77%
Frontier Details →	LAX 06:03 → DEN 09:38F9 3156	1h 43m Denver	DEN 11:21 → TPA 16:54F9 2748	7h 51m	97%	76%
United Details →	LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654	1h 38m Houston	IAH 12:50 → TPA 16:12UA 1501	7h 27m	99%	76%
United Details →	LAX 08:15 → IAD 16:26UA 2268	1h 34m Dulles	IAD 18:00 → TPA 20:39UA 1140	9h 24m	96%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	LAX 13:59 → DEN 17:25F9 2342	48m Denver	DEN 18:13 → TPA 23:50F9 9504	6h 51m	75%	55%
Delta Details →	LAX 12:00 → ATL 19:28DL 395	53m Atlanta	ATL 20:21 → TPA 21:55DL 3135	6h 55m	67%	46%
Frontier Details →	LAX 12:43 → ATL 20:22F9 4316	53m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → TPA 23:00F9 3054	7h 17m	56%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON