tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 6286 at 11:16, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 6286 SkyWest LAX 11:16 TUL 16:38 13% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:13 → DFW 05:22AA 2490 1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:05 → TUL 08:14AA 4063 · flown by Envoy 6h 01m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:35 → SLC 14:27DL 1194 2h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → TUL 20:40DL 3825 · flown by SkyWest 7h 05m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAX 14:30 → DEN 18:00UA 2758 2h 55m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 7h 17m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → TUL 16:44DL 2837 8h 44m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:47 → DEN 12:14UA 1912 1h 26m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 5h 42m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971 3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:42 → TUL 10:01AA 2348 7h 30m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → ORD 13:14UA 1941 2h 21m Chicago ORD 15:35 → TUL 17:42UA 4482 · flown by GoJet 8h 42m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 2061 3h 08m Denver DEN 17:35 → TUL 20:25UA 1937 7h 30m 99% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAX 08:19 → SEA 10:56AS 495 56m Seattle SEA 11:52 → TUL 17:32AS 2217 · flown by Horizon 7h 13m 67% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON