Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 15–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 575 LAX 11:07 → TUS 12:46 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 138 LAX 09:48 → TUS 11:31 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 575 Southwest	LAX 11:07	TUS 12:46	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 283 SkyWest	LAX 20:45	TUS 22:29	15%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 3846 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:21	TUS 20:59	15%	7%	0.6%	82%
OO 6296 SkyWest	LAX 08:35	TUS 10:15	16%	7%	0.5%	no record
AA 6315 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:58	TUS 22:38	16%	8%	0.6%	76%
OO 6292 SkyWest	LAX 16:19	TUS 17:57	17%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 138 SkyWest	LAX 09:48	TUS 11:31	17%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON