tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 6210 SkyWest LAX 17:32 XNA 23:00 13% 6% 0.6% no record
OO 6299 SkyWest LAX 10:12 XNA 15:44 16% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318 3h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 13:43 → XNA 17:36DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest 8h 21m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 3h 23m Houston IAH 09:35 → XNA 11:12UA 4297 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 21m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15AA 2811 3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:16 → XNA 15:37AA 3840 · flown by Envoy 7h 37m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 17:19 → XNA 18:14DL 2771 10h 14m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → LAX 08:05 → PHL 16:28AA 1528 1h 37m Philadelphia PHL 18:05 → XNA 20:26AA 5628 · flown by PSA 10h 21m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → LAX 08:05 → ATL 15:41DL 782 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 19:36 → XNA 20:32DL 1710 10h 27m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:47 → DEN 12:14UA 1912 1h 16m Denver DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest 5h 38m 93% 77%
DeltaDetails → LAX 13:15 → ATL 20:56DL 395 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 22:57 → XNA 23:56DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest 8h 41m 95% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 11:39 → ORD 17:56AA 2891 1h 03m Chicago ORD 18:59 → XNA 20:52AA 3578 · flown by Envoy 7h 13m 74% 58%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528 51m Atlanta ATL 19:28 → XNA 20:24DL 5159 · flown by Endeavor 7h 26m 64% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON