Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 550 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 550 LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 3453 LGA 18:29 → ATL 21:21 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 550 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:00	ATL 08:23	5%	2%	0.8%	91%
DL 342 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	ATL 09:30	5%	2%	0.8%	94%
DL 992 Delta Flight history →	LGA 09:00	ATL 11:32	7%	3%	0.8%	87%
YX 4600 Republic	LGA 08:35	ATL 11:05	7%	2%	1.1%	no record
DL 989 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:00	ATL 12:28	8%	3%	0.8%	84%
DL 993 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:00	ATL 14:32	10%	4%	1.0%	83%
YX 4349 Republic	LGA 11:55	ATL 14:31	11%	3%	1.3%	no record
F9 3287 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 06:29	ATL 09:17	12%	5%	1.7%	63%
DL 964 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:00	ATL 21:20	13%	9%	1.9%	71%
DL 990 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:05	ATL 14:26	13%	4%	0.9%	83%
YX 4346 Republic	LGA 15:08	ATL 17:35	13%	5%	2.0%	no record
DL 988 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:01	ATL 16:22	15%	5%	0.9%	76%
DL 969 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:51	ATL 18:14	16%	6%	1.7%	70%
F9 3453 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 18:29	ATL 21:21	28%	16%	4.8%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON